State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States.

"the codes used to generate our results will be available on github prior to publication at https://github com/wachiuphd/covid-19-bayesian-seir-us ."

"Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests."

"We acknowledge funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF RAPID DEB 2028632) and National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30 ES029067). The funders had no role in the conceptualization, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We thank F.Y. Bois, J.K. Cetina, M. Giannoni, I. Rusyn, and W. Więcek for useful input and advice on scenario development, model formulation, and MCMC simulation. We also thank Unacast for making their mobility data available for researchers, and The COVID Tracking Project for compiling case and mortality data and providing it to the public. Portions of this research were conducted with the advanced computing resources provided by Texas A&M High Performance Research Computing."