How to model the impact of vaccines for policymaking when the characteristics are uncertain: A case study in Thailand prior to the vaccine rollout during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"appendix a supplementary data the following are the supplementary data to this article: supplementary data 1 data availability the model code and the data used in this paper can be found at https://github com/slphyx/covac19th."

"appendix a supplementary data the following are the supplementary data to this article: supplementary data 1 data availability the model code and the data used in this paper can be found at https://github com/slphyx/covac19th."

"Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper."

"This project was funded by the Health Systems Research Institute (HSRI), the World Health Organization, and the Wellcome Trust [Grant number 220211]. The Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP) is funded by the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) under a grant for a Senior Research Scholar (RTA5980011). HITAP is supported by the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI) to provide technical assistance on health intervention and technology assessment to governments in low- and middle-income countries. iDSI is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1202541), the UK’s Department for International Development, and the Rockefeller Foundation. HITAP is also supported by the Access and Delivery Partnership (ADP), which is hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and funded by the Government of Japan. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies. We would also like to thanks Dr. Bo Gao for supporting us on the model fitting. For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission."